Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Cross-Harbour (Holdings) Limited (0032.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$215.00 - $560.78$525.53
Multi-Stage$79.67 - $87.21$83.37
Blended Fair Value$304.45
Current Price$8.10
Upside3,658.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.53%4.76%0.480.360.420.420.420.400.390.350.350.33
YoY Growth--32.78%-14.50%0.04%0.38%4.34%3.91%11.56%-0.14%4.12%11.04%
Dividend Yield--7.12%4.67%3.87%3.82%2.99%3.31%3.32%2.73%3.10%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,050.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.18131.3678.82
Cash Retained (M)737.93737.93737.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.18-131.36-78.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)527.76606.57659.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.262.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$215.00$525.53$560.78
Upside / Downside2,554.37%6,388.02%6,823.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,050.881,119.191,191.941,269.411,351.931,439.801,483.00
Payout Ratio29.78%41.82%53.87%65.91%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.95468.09642.07836.701,053.911,295.821,371.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)434.96439.08443.20
Year 2 PV (M)554.39564.95575.61
Year 3 PV (M)671.31690.58710.21
Year 4 PV (M)785.73815.95847.03
Year 5 PV (M)897.70941.06986.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,347.3427,619.9228,941.21
Equity Value (M)29,691.4231,071.5432,503.35
Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
Fair Value$79.67$83.37$87.21
Upside / Downside883.56%929.28%976.71%

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