Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. (002797.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.02 - $50.24$25.18
Multi-Stage$5.78 - $6.32$6.05
Blended Fair Value$15.61
Current Price$7.83
Upside99.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%10.95%0.100.130.120.110.110.100.100.100.100.06
YoY Growth---22.69%9.80%1.31%0.51%17.18%1.29%-3.21%-5.04%67.90%78.48%
Dividend Yield--1.32%2.32%1.94%1.95%1.48%1.41%1.18%1.23%0.59%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,033.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)397.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)635.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)206.64129.1577.49
Cash Retained (M)635.33635.33635.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-206.64-129.15-77.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)428.69506.18557.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,089.654,089.654,089.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.02$25.18$50.24
Upside / Downside40.73%221.57%541.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,033.201,100.361,171.881,248.061,329.181,415.581,458.04
Payout Ratio38.51%48.81%59.11%69.40%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)397.87537.05692.64866.191,059.381,274.021,348.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)495.19499.89504.58
Year 2 PV (M)588.88600.09611.42
Year 3 PV (M)679.03698.52718.38
Year 4 PV (M)765.74795.18825.47
Year 5 PV (M)849.10890.12932.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,267.5521,246.4822,262.87
Equity Value (M)23,645.4824,730.2825,855.42
Shares Outstanding (M)4,089.654,089.654,089.65
Fair Value$5.78$6.05$6.32
Upside / Downside-26.16%-22.77%-19.26%

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