Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Western Securities Co., Ltd. (002673.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.08 - $85.44$80.07
Multi-Stage$12.35 - $13.51$12.92
Blended Fair Value$46.50
Current Price$8.58
Upside441.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.91%27.84%0.250.170.210.140.080.080.120.170.270.09
YoY Growth--45.28%-18.33%50.93%65.69%10.97%-34.25%-33.72%-34.50%200.89%312.24%
Dividend Yield--3.20%2.45%3.30%1.93%0.95%0.92%0.99%1.79%1.66%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,917.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)942.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)383.60239.75143.85
Cash Retained (M)942.79942.79942.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-383.60-239.75-143.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)559.19703.04798.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.08$80.07$85.44
Upside / Downside285.56%833.22%895.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,917.982,042.642,175.422,316.822,467.412,627.792,706.63
Payout Ratio50.84%58.68%66.51%74.34%82.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.191,198.531,446.801,722.272,027.442,365.012,503.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,113.811,124.371,134.93
Year 2 PV (M)1,249.481,273.281,297.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,382.251,421.931,462.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,512.151,570.301,630.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,639.231,718.411,800.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,255.2850,586.0253,005.97
Equity Value (M)55,152.2157,694.3260,331.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
Fair Value$12.35$12.92$13.51
Upside / Downside43.99%50.62%57.51%

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