Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.03 - $5.80$4.89
Multi-Stage$5.93 - $6.50$6.21
Blended Fair Value$5.55
Current Price$18.02
Upside-69.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.77%0.82%0.020.010.010.010.010.080.090.040.020.02
YoY Growth--37.44%101.21%-13.56%-35.92%-83.19%-13.32%122.26%155.29%-15.63%1.53%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.19%0.14%0.17%0.31%1.69%1.96%0.30%0.09%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.1985.1251.07
Cash Retained (M)450.01450.01450.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.19-85.12-51.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.83364.90398.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$4.03$4.89$5.80
Upside / Downside-77.63%-72.84%-67.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.93679.67678.42677.17675.92674.68694.92
Payout Ratio33.91%45.13%56.35%67.56%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.92306.73382.27457.53532.51607.21642.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)276.21279.01281.80
Year 2 PV (M)309.98316.28322.65
Year 3 PV (M)334.08344.33354.78
Year 4 PV (M)350.14364.53379.36
Year 5 PV (M)359.53378.09397.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,485.755,769.006,063.84
Equity Value (M)7,115.707,451.257,799.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
Fair Value$5.93$6.21$6.50
Upside / Downside-67.11%-65.56%-63.95%

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