Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry Ltd. ,company (002538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.66 - $13.78$8.42
Multi-Stage$4.27 - $4.65$4.46
Blended Fair Value$6.44
Current Price$5.27
Upside22.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.57%10.22%0.240.270.380.200.070.090.180.120.130.10
YoY Growth---10.03%-29.41%92.28%180.89%-25.71%-48.41%46.94%-4.56%33.16%7.75%
Dividend Yield--3.99%5.28%4.78%2.26%1.25%1.89%2.95%1.54%1.26%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.4427.7816.67
Cash Retained (M)94.3294.3294.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.44-27.78-16.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.8866.5577.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$5.66$8.42$13.78
Upside / Downside7.36%59.78%161.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.20236.12250.91266.63283.34301.09310.12
Payout Ratio57.55%64.04%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.88151.22176.97205.36236.62270.98286.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)137.25138.55139.86
Year 2 PV (M)145.79148.57151.38
Year 3 PV (M)153.55157.97162.47
Year 4 PV (M)160.58166.77173.14
Year 5 PV (M)166.92175.00183.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,878.263,017.603,162.28
Equity Value (M)3,642.363,804.473,972.53
Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
Fair Value$4.27$4.46$4.65
Upside / Downside-19.03%-15.42%-11.69%

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