Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd (002478.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.70 - $20.48$14.63
Multi-Stage$13.44 - $14.74$14.08
Blended Fair Value$14.35
Current Price$5.71
Upside151.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.15%10.35%0.280.180.080.100.150.140.110.450.090.09
YoY Growth--56.04%126.96%-18.94%-33.08%5.39%24.67%-74.81%400.02%0.47%-16.18%
Dividend Yield--4.94%2.77%1.42%2.17%3.54%2.76%1.71%8.87%1.07%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)615.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)414.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.0676.9146.15
Cash Retained (M)414.83414.83414.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.06-76.91-46.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.77337.91368.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)902.35902.35902.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$10.70$14.63$20.48
Upside / Downside87.42%156.17%258.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)615.31634.97655.27676.21697.82720.12741.72
Payout Ratio32.58%44.07%55.55%67.03%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.48279.81364.00453.28547.90648.11686.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)257.99260.52263.04
Year 2 PV (M)309.45315.53321.68
Year 3 PV (M)355.31365.84376.58
Year 4 PV (M)395.99411.72427.91
Year 5 PV (M)431.89453.44475.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,378.8610,896.6911,434.98
Equity Value (M)12,129.5012,703.7413,300.04
Shares Outstanding (M)902.35902.35902.35
Fair Value$13.44$14.08$14.74
Upside / Downside135.41%146.56%158.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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