Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (002393.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.34 - $16.52$13.85
Multi-Stage$15.88 - $17.40$16.62
Blended Fair Value$15.24
Current Price$23.32
Upside-34.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%0.82%0.470.210.210.070.210.210.220.230.300.23
YoY Growth--121.11%0.00%200.00%-66.86%0.59%-4.45%-1.71%-24.51%32.34%-47.70%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.19%1.30%0.42%1.66%1.23%1.08%1.09%1.08%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2048.2528.95
Cash Retained (M)284.94284.94284.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.20-48.25-28.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.74236.69255.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Fair Value$11.34$13.85$16.52
Upside / Downside-51.37%-40.63%-29.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.02387.76389.51391.27393.04394.82406.66
Payout Ratio26.18%38.95%51.71%64.47%77.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.07151.02201.42252.27303.57355.34376.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)135.98137.34138.71
Year 2 PV (M)163.29166.59169.92
Year 3 PV (M)184.14189.75195.47
Year 4 PV (M)199.51207.66216.05
Year 5 PV (M)210.27221.06232.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,198.983,363.083,533.84
Equity Value (M)4,092.174,285.474,486.28
Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
Fair Value$15.88$16.62$17.40
Upside / Downside-31.93%-28.71%-25.37%

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