Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Baolingbao Biology Co.,Ltd. (002286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.68 - $21.32$12.95
Multi-Stage$6.12 - $6.69$6.40
Blended Fair Value$9.68
Current Price$9.63
Upside0.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.53%15.62%0.150.140.140.110.070.120.170.100.080.05
YoY Growth--11.17%-5.25%34.84%60.20%-42.49%-30.96%66.57%31.95%47.42%45.83%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.17%1.60%0.89%0.62%1.45%2.33%0.91%0.52%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8218.0110.81
Cash Retained (M)99.8899.8899.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.82-18.01-10.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0781.8789.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.68$12.95$21.32
Upside / Downside-9.89%34.50%121.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.09153.46163.43174.05185.37197.42203.34
Payout Ratio30.68%42.54%54.41%66.27%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2165.2988.92115.35144.84177.67188.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.1559.7160.27
Year 2 PV (M)72.9874.3775.78
Year 3 PV (M)85.7788.2490.74
Year 4 PV (M)97.58101.33105.19
Year 5 PV (M)108.44113.68119.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,810.011,897.441,988.21
Equity Value (M)2,233.932,334.762,439.30
Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
Fair Value$6.12$6.40$6.69
Upside / Downside-36.40%-33.53%-30.55%

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