Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (002226.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.34 - $60.49$56.69
Multi-Stage$11.88 - $13.01$12.43
Blended Fair Value$34.56
Current Price$6.88
Upside402.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.59%5.13%0.120.120.110.120.090.080.100.110.010.07
YoY Growth--5.96%6.26%-5.05%33.87%5.52%-17.86%-11.17%975.27%-85.41%-4.58%
Dividend Yield--2.20%2.48%2.07%1.80%1.73%2.47%2.00%2.47%0.15%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)805.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)319.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.12100.7060.42
Cash Retained (M)486.12486.12486.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.12-100.70-60.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)325.00385.42425.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,648.582,648.582,648.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate5.66%5.66%5.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.34$56.69$60.49
Upside / Downside646.25%723.95%779.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)805.59857.95913.72973.111,036.361,103.721,136.84
Payout Ratio39.66%49.73%59.79%69.86%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)319.47426.62546.35679.84828.38993.351,051.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.66%5.66%5.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)399.98403.77407.56
Year 2 PV (M)480.25489.40498.63
Year 3 PV (M)560.28576.36592.75
Year 4 PV (M)640.07664.68690.00
Year 5 PV (M)719.61754.37790.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,656.6930,040.8231,477.92
Equity Value (M)31,456.8832,929.4034,457.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,648.582,648.582,648.58
Fair Value$11.88$12.43$13.01
Upside / Downside72.63%80.71%89.10%

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