Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Communications Technology Co., Ltd. (002061.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.19 - $91.23$85.50
Multi-Stage$14.21 - $15.54$14.86
Blended Fair Value$50.18
Current Price$4.15
Upside1,109.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.42%21.72%0.300.280.290.200.150.160.150.150.080.07
YoY Growth--4.71%-3.93%49.89%30.49%-4.62%4.40%1.87%94.17%13.78%61.93%
Dividend Yield--7.60%7.47%6.68%3.99%3.70%4.33%2.37%1.62%1.19%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,185.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)525.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.12148.2088.92
Cash Retained (M)525.73525.73525.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.12-148.20-88.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)288.60377.52436.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.532,584.532,584.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.19$85.50$91.23
Upside / Downside988.80%1,960.15%2,098.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,185.611,262.671,344.751,432.151,525.241,624.381,673.12
Payout Ratio55.66%62.53%69.39%76.26%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.88789.50933.181,092.201,267.961,461.951,547.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)735.34742.31749.28
Year 2 PV (M)809.54824.96840.53
Year 3 PV (M)882.50907.84933.65
Year 4 PV (M)954.23990.931,028.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,024.751,074.251,125.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,316.3533,877.2435,497.87
Equity Value (M)36,722.7338,417.5340,175.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.532,584.532,584.53
Fair Value$14.21$14.86$15.54
Upside / Downside242.38%258.18%274.57%

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