Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Guangdong Construction Engineering Group Co., Ltd. (002060.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.46 - $57.34$53.74
Multi-Stage$9.00 - $9.84$9.41
Blended Fair Value$31.58
Current Price$3.81
Upside728.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.37%15.38%0.380.370.110.200.170.140.120.110.100.09
YoY Growth--3.44%233.80%-43.82%12.67%20.48%19.05%9.85%11.31%7.75%1.20%
Dividend Yield--10.84%8.59%1.61%2.02%4.31%4.65%3.13%3.20%2.32%2.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,082.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,065.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)216.43135.2781.16
Cash Retained (M)16.2516.2516.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-216.43-135.27-81.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)-200.18-119.02-64.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,753.093,753.093,753.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.46$53.74$57.34
Upside / Downside594.44%1,310.44%1,405.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,082.131,152.471,227.381,307.161,392.131,482.611,527.09
Payout Ratio98.50%96.80%95.10%93.40%91.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,065.881,115.581,167.231,220.881,276.581,334.351,412.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,038.441,048.281,058.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,011.391,030.651,050.10
Year 3 PV (M)984.721,012.991,041.80
Year 4 PV (M)958.45995.311,033.22
Year 5 PV (M)932.55977.601,024.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,867.8830,262.2131,709.91
Equity Value (M)33,793.4335,327.0436,917.50
Shares Outstanding (M)3,753.093,753.093,753.09
Fair Value$9.00$9.41$9.84
Upside / Downside136.33%147.05%158.18%

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