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Definitive Analysis

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Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (0016.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.05 - $193.61$156.11
Multi-Stage$297.66 - $327.63$312.35
Blended Fair Value$234.23
Current Price$90.05
Upside160.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.004.614.914.914.914.914.664.163.863.42
YoY Growth---100.00%-6.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.34%11.92%7.75%13.12%5.05%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.83%4.97%5.29%4.24%4.96%3.52%3.52%3.37%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,589.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,306.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,579.004,736.882,842.13
Cash Retained (M)16,306.0016,306.0016,306.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,579.00-4,736.88-2,842.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,727.0011,569.1313,463.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
LTM Dividend per Share7.397.397.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3711.3411.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$124.05$156.11$193.61
Upside / Downside37.75%73.36%115.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,895.0037,516.0537,140.8936,769.4836,401.7936,037.7737,118.90
Payout Ratio56.97%63.58%70.18%76.79%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,589.0023,851.3826,066.3528,234.6330,356.9532,433.9934,334.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22,233.2622,460.1322,687.00
Year 2 PV (M)22,649.5523,114.1523,583.46
Year 3 PV (M)22,869.2223,576.4724,298.14
Year 4 PV (M)22,920.1323,870.0624,849.22
Year 5 PV (M)22,827.0124,015.6725,253.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)756,504.49795,897.43836,914.57
Equity Value (M)870,003.66912,933.90957,585.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
Fair Value$297.66$312.35$327.63
Upside / Downside230.55%246.86%263.83%

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