Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Yuexiu Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (000987.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.92 - $141.97$133.04
Multi-Stage$23.14 - $25.32$24.21
Blended Fair Value$78.63
Current Price$7.83
Upside904.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%36.13%0.780.780.630.620.470.510.190.200.120.04
YoY Growth--0.00%22.98%1.93%33.83%-9.39%169.57%-4.79%65.83%237.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.26%13.75%9.63%10.54%6.04%10.33%3.14%3.58%1.67%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,585.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,278.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,307.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)717.08448.17268.90
Cash Retained (M)1,307.181,307.181,307.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-717.08-448.17-268.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)590.11859.011,038.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.92$133.04$141.97
Upside / Downside958.98%1,599.15%1,713.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,585.393,818.444,066.644,330.974,612.494,912.305,059.67
Payout Ratio63.54%68.83%74.12%79.42%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,278.212,628.353,014.393,439.513,907.164,421.074,680.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,451.062,474.292,497.52
Year 2 PV (M)2,621.432,671.362,721.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,789.362,869.442,951.03
Year 4 PV (M)2,954.883,068.513,185.39
Year 5 PV (M)3,117.993,268.593,424.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,297.51107,238.52112,368.63
Equity Value (M)116,232.24121,590.72127,149.30
Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
Fair Value$23.14$24.21$25.32
Upside / Downside195.55%209.18%223.31%

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