Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd. (000959.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.86 - $6.08$4.06
Multi-Stage$4.54 - $4.98$4.76
Blended Fair Value$4.41
Current Price$4.26
Upside3.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.36%3.56%0.180.190.320.400.340.330.320.320.310.39
YoY Growth---5.55%-39.92%-19.89%16.35%3.47%3.18%-0.42%3.72%-19.98%204.13%
Dividend Yield--5.40%5.90%8.37%7.66%7.42%11.25%7.17%6.52%4.35%8.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,220.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)874.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)244.17152.6191.56
Cash Retained (M)346.05346.05346.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-244.17-152.61-91.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.88193.45254.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,754.377,754.377,754.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Fair Value$2.86$4.06$6.08
Upside / Downside-32.97%-4.68%42.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,220.851,252.171,284.281,317.221,351.001,385.651,427.22
Payout Ratio71.65%75.32%78.99%82.66%86.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)874.80943.181,014.491,088.841,166.331,247.091,320.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate1.56%2.56%3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)880.75889.42898.09
Year 2 PV (M)884.63902.14919.81
Year 3 PV (M)886.61913.06940.03
Year 4 PV (M)886.85922.30958.80
Year 5 PV (M)885.49929.95976.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,790.3732,336.3233,943.74
Equity Value (M)35,214.7136,893.1838,636.65
Shares Outstanding (M)7,754.377,754.377,754.37
Fair Value$4.54$4.76$4.98
Upside / Downside6.60%11.68%16.96%

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