Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. (000958.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.70 - $16.71$7.80
Multi-Stage$3.11 - $3.40$3.25
Blended Fair Value$5.52
Current Price$6.54
Upside-15.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.95%12.78%0.150.140.170.160.280.080.100.040.010.02
YoY Growth--11.11%-20.79%8.84%-44.10%243.36%-19.81%144.36%399.87%-59.20%-54.70%
Dividend Yield--2.22%3.57%3.98%2.75%5.52%1.90%1.89%0.91%0.12%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)897.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)543.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)353.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.49112.1867.31
Cash Retained (M)353.71353.71353.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.49-112.18-67.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.22241.53286.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,383.365,383.365,383.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.70$7.80$16.71
Upside / Downside-28.10%19.24%155.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)897.44955.771,017.901,084.061,154.531,229.571,266.46
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.23%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)543.73635.30736.47848.11971.161,106.611,171.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)580.07585.57591.07
Year 2 PV (M)613.99625.69637.49
Year 3 PV (M)645.61664.14683.02
Year 4 PV (M)675.01700.96727.66
Year 5 PV (M)702.29736.21771.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,536.7114,190.5414,869.39
Equity Value (M)16,753.6817,503.1218,280.08
Shares Outstanding (M)5,383.365,383.365,383.36
Fair Value$3.11$3.25$3.40
Upside / Downside-52.41%-50.29%-48.08%

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