Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co., Ltd. (000887.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.56 - $63.45$38.27
Multi-Stage$17.81 - $19.46$18.62
Blended Fair Value$28.45
Current Price$24.86
Upside14.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.56%27.40%0.380.200.200.190.190.190.280.090.070.03
YoY Growth--88.50%0.00%8.69%0.00%-3.69%-32.08%200.01%27.03%117.79%1.27%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.69%1.58%1.23%1.86%2.07%2.22%0.53%0.30%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,506.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)342.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,164.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)301.39188.37113.02
Cash Retained (M)1,164.221,164.221,164.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-301.39-188.37-113.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)862.83975.851,051.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.461,307.461,307.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.56$38.27$63.45
Upside / Downside2.80%53.96%155.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,506.941,604.891,709.211,820.311,938.632,064.642,126.58
Payout Ratio22.74%36.19%49.65%63.10%76.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)342.73580.88848.551,148.571,484.001,858.181,967.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)526.44531.43536.42
Year 2 PV (M)696.94710.21723.61
Year 3 PV (M)854.93879.47904.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,001.071,039.571,079.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,135.991,190.861,247.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,069.5419,990.6120,946.93
Equity Value (M)23,284.9124,342.1525,438.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.461,307.461,307.46
Fair Value$17.81$18.62$19.46
Upside / Downside-28.36%-25.11%-21.74%

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