Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hwacheon Machine Tool Co. Ltd (000850.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48,303.24 - $72,127.25$59,628.35
Multi-Stage$113,172.44 - $124,838.71$118,889.20
Blended Fair Value$89,258.78
Current Price$32,800.00
Upside172.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.79%-1.42%1,299.852,499.72999.89749.911,249.861,249.861,249.861,249.861,499.831,499.83
YoY Growth---48.00%150.00%33.33%-40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-16.67%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.89%7.68%2.67%2.22%3.61%4.29%2.95%2.39%2.98%2.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,061.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,310.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,751.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,612.391,632.74979.65
Cash Retained (M)10,751.9610,751.9610,751.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,612.39-1,632.74-979.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,139.579,119.219,772.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.202.202.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share3,699.384,144.634,441.45
LTM Dividend per Share1,049.881,049.881,049.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share3,699.384,144.634,441.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,749.265,194.515,491.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Fair Value$48,303.24$59,628.35$72,127.25
Upside / Downside47.27%81.79%119.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,061.9612,801.0012,545.2612,294.6312,049.0011,808.2812,162.53
Payout Ratio17.68%32.15%46.61%61.07%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,310.004,115.265,847.477,508.829,101.4510,627.4611,250.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,823.243,862.663,902.07
Year 2 PV (M)5,047.045,151.645,257.31
Year 3 PV (M)6,021.106,209.246,401.26
Year 4 PV (M)6,780.317,064.267,357.03
Year 5 PV (M)7,355.347,742.378,145.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)219,980.64231,555.80243,613.17
Equity Value (M)249,007.67261,585.96274,676.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2.202.202.20
Fair Value$113,172.44$118,889.20$124,838.71
Upside / Downside245.04%262.47%280.61%

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