Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Norinco International Cooperation Ltd. (000065.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.96 - $137.80$129.14
Multi-Stage$84.70 - $92.95$88.75
Blended Fair Value$108.95
Current Price$10.88
Upside901.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.67%33.04%0.260.060.060.070.060.050.050.040.020.02
YoY Growth--364.01%1.48%-17.34%6.52%15.00%0.00%33.33%110.35%-4.74%36.40%
Dividend Yield--2.52%0.48%0.36%0.77%0.74%0.85%0.50%0.39%0.09%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)776.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)270.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)506.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.3397.0858.25
Cash Retained (M)506.34506.34506.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.33-97.08-58.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.01409.26448.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.841,120.841,120.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate1.03%1.03%1.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.96$129.14$137.80
Upside / Downside975.02%1,086.95%1,166.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)776.64827.12880.88938.14999.121,064.061,095.99
Payout Ratio34.80%45.84%56.88%67.92%78.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)270.30379.18501.07637.20788.91957.661,013.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.03%1.03%1.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)371.79375.32378.84
Year 2 PV (M)481.74490.92500.18
Year 3 PV (M)600.70617.94635.51
Year 4 PV (M)729.24757.28786.13
Year 5 PV (M)867.98909.90953.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,885.1196,323.19100,931.13
Equity Value (M)94,936.5599,474.55104,185.22
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.841,120.841,120.84
Fair Value$84.70$88.75$92.95
Upside / Downside678.50%715.71%754.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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