Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Castellum AB (publ) (CAST.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.41 - $54.28$46.26
Multi-Stage$99.14 - $109.55$104.24
Blended Fair Value$75.25
Current Price$106.30
Upside-29.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.77%-6.63%0.711.984.143.833.613.392.942.771.631.53
YoY Growth---63.93%-52.28%8.00%6.31%6.54%15.12%6.00%69.90%6.63%8.18%
Dividend Yield--0.64%1.43%4.09%1.96%2.23%2.40%1.92%2.42%1.64%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,038.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)654.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,384.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)607.60379.75227.85
Cash Retained (M)2,384.002,384.002,384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-607.60-379.75-227.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,776.402,004.252,156.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)492.32492.32492.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.614.074.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.614.074.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.945.405.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Fair Value$38.41$46.26$54.28
Upside / Downside-63.87%-56.48%-48.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,038.002,903.412,774.792,651.872,534.392,422.112,494.78
Payout Ratio21.53%35.22%48.92%62.61%76.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)654.001,022.641,357.331,660.361,933.882,179.902,307.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)948.17958.19968.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,166.851,191.651,216.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,323.411,365.841,409.16
Year 4 PV (M)1,429.181,490.591,553.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,493.681,574.341,658.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,445.5344,737.6347,127.70
Equity Value (M)48,806.8251,318.2653,934.22
Shares Outstanding (M)492.32492.32492.32
Fair Value$99.14$104.24$109.55
Upside / Downside-6.74%-1.94%3.06%

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