Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk (AMFG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,068.39 - $4,731.08$3,841.04
Multi-Stage$3,501.44 - $3,829.95$3,662.65
Blended Fair Value$3,751.85
Current Price$3,380.00
Upside11.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.60%-0.03%79.7581.1879.750.000.0030.0030.0080.0080.0080.00
YoY Growth---1.76%1.79%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-62.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.40%1.55%0.00%0.00%1.20%0.53%1.47%1.18%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138,641.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34,828.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)103,813.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,728.2017,330.1310,398.08
Cash Retained (M)103,813.00103,813.00103,813.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,728.20-17,330.13-10,398.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)76,084.8086,482.8893,414.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)434.00434.00434.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share175.31199.27215.24
LTM Dividend per Share80.2580.2580.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share175.31199.27215.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend255.56279.52295.49
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Fair Value$3,068.39$3,841.04$4,731.08
Upside / Downside-9.22%13.64%39.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138,641.00142,814.89147,114.43151,543.41156,105.74160,805.41165,629.57
Payout Ratio25.12%38.10%51.07%64.05%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34,828.0054,407.9075,135.1697,061.13120,239.19144,724.87153,207.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Year 1 PV (M)48,756.9349,234.8949,712.85
Year 2 PV (M)60,338.1661,526.9362,727.31
Year 3 PV (M)69,850.3571,924.7674,039.84
Year 4 PV (M)77,543.1980,628.7983,805.57
Year 5 PV (M)83,640.2387,820.9892,167.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,179,497.901,238,455.061,299,746.57
Equity Value (M)1,519,626.751,589,591.411,662,199.40
Shares Outstanding (M)434.00434.00434.00
Fair Value$3,501.44$3,662.65$3,829.95
Upside / Downside3.59%8.36%13.31%

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