Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (605169.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.55 - $5.60$4.49
Multi-Stage$9.17 - $10.08$9.62
Blended Fair Value$7.05
Current Price$14.05
Upside-49.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-16.19%0.00%0.230.200.410.370.020.560.260.610.010.00
YoY Growth--13.36%-50.63%11.51%1,675.75%-96.27%111.95%-56.72%3,973.84%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.25%3.72%3.11%0.14%3.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1212.587.55
Cash Retained (M)9.009.009.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.12-12.58-7.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.13-3.581.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.55$4.49$5.60
Upside / Downside-74.71%-68.04%-60.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.6299.6198.6297.6396.6695.6998.56
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.42%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.6290.5089.3888.2887.1986.1291.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)84.5585.4186.27
Year 2 PV (M)78.0279.6281.24
Year 3 PV (M)71.9974.2276.49
Year 4 PV (M)66.4369.1972.02
Year 5 PV (M)61.3064.4967.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,196.862,311.262,430.37
Equity Value (M)2,559.162,684.192,814.21
Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
Fair Value$9.17$9.62$10.08
Upside / Downside-34.75%-31.56%-28.25%

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