Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Seagull Cooling Tower Co.,Ltd. (603269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.46 - $90.09$84.42
Multi-Stage$52.37 - $57.45$54.86
Blended Fair Value$69.64
Current Price$14.10
Upside393.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.72%13.75%0.290.200.200.170.130.090.120.050.070.08
YoY Growth--47.94%1.85%13.61%27.67%43.68%-19.32%114.02%-24.06%-5.83%-6.48%
Dividend Yield--3.64%2.81%3.43%3.41%3.61%2.12%2.02%0.61%1.71%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2413.277.96
Cash Retained (M)31.0731.0731.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.24-13.27-7.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8317.7923.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate2.31%2.31%2.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.46$84.42$90.09
Upside / Downside442.29%498.75%538.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.19113.09120.44128.27136.61145.49149.86
Payout Ratio70.74%74.60%78.45%82.30%86.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.1284.3694.48105.57117.69130.94138.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.31%2.31%2.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.6882.4683.23
Year 2 PV (M)88.5890.2791.97
Year 3 PV (M)95.8398.58101.38
Year 4 PV (M)103.44107.42111.51
Year 5 PV (M)111.43116.82122.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,796.4912,366.2612,957.84
Equity Value (M)12,277.4512,861.8013,468.34
Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
Fair Value$52.37$54.86$57.45
Upside / Downside271.43%289.11%307.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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