Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd. (600918.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.72 - $7.03$5.06
Multi-Stage$10.75 - $11.84$11.29
Blended Fair Value$8.18
Current Price$6.95
Upside17.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.30%29.94%0.350.340.380.390.310.370.340.370.380.15
YoY Growth--1.79%-9.31%-3.60%24.39%-15.39%9.75%-7.64%-4.43%156.70%489.27%
Dividend Yield--5.40%5.07%5.61%4.78%2.35%5.87%5.35%5.79%6.06%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,734.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,182.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)551.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)346.92216.83130.10
Cash Retained (M)551.66551.66551.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-346.92-216.83-130.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.74334.83421.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,956.896,956.896,956.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Fair Value$3.72$5.06$7.03
Upside / Downside-46.42%-27.14%1.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,734.611,743.631,752.691,761.811,770.961,780.171,833.58
Payout Ratio68.20%72.56%76.92%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,182.951,265.131,348.141,431.971,516.641,602.151,696.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.601,206.611,218.61
Year 2 PV (M)1,202.011,226.291,250.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,205.581,242.291,279.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,205.681,254.871,305.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,202.651,264.301,328.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,798.2672,324.9475,994.78
Equity Value (M)74,808.7978,519.3082,377.95
Shares Outstanding (M)6,956.896,956.896,956.89
Fair Value$10.75$11.29$11.84
Upside / Downside54.72%62.40%70.38%

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