Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (600809.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$393.43 - $2,004.83$808.04
Multi-Stage$216.15 - $236.44$226.11
Blended Fair Value$517.07
Current Price$194.01
Upside166.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.29%33.24%4.383.311.800.140.650.520.460.420.250.00
YoY Growth--32.66%83.61%1,159.96%-77.93%24.98%12.70%10.59%66.21%22,889.39%-99.56%
Dividend Yield--2.05%1.31%0.66%0.06%0.27%0.80%1.06%1.06%1.19%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,297.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,019.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,278.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,459.481,537.18922.31
Cash Retained (M)9,278.409,278.409,278.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,459.48-1,537.18-922.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,818.917,741.228,356.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,219.881,219.881,219.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.596.356.85
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.596.356.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.068.829.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$393.43$808.04$2,004.83
Upside / Downside102.79%316.49%933.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,297.4213,096.7513,948.0414,854.6615,820.2216,848.5317,353.99
Payout Ratio24.55%37.64%50.73%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,019.024,929.627,075.849,480.2512,167.3315,163.6816,052.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,535.784,578.774,621.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,990.386,104.486,219.66
Year 3 PV (M)7,384.727,596.717,812.72
Year 4 PV (M)8,720.639,056.009,400.95
Year 5 PV (M)9,999.8810,482.8810,984.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)227,041.58238,007.78249,393.67
Equity Value (M)263,672.97275,826.61288,433.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,219.881,219.881,219.88
Fair Value$216.15$226.11$236.44
Upside / Downside11.41%16.55%21.87%

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