Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co (4263.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.34 - $67.98$58.09
Multi-Stage$74.36 - $81.37$77.80
Blended Fair Value$67.94
Current Price$187.80
Upside-63.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%6.174.403.191.250.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--40.23%38.04%155.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%1.83%2.40%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.5776.6145.97
Cash Retained (M)274.16274.16274.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.57-76.61-45.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.59197.55228.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
LTM Dividend per Share4.234.234.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.08
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$48.34$58.09$67.98
Upside / Downside-74.26%-69.07%-63.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.87606.74600.68594.67588.72582.84600.32
Payout Ratio55.27%62.21%69.16%76.11%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.71377.47415.43452.58488.95524.55555.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)338.40341.85345.31
Year 2 PV (M)333.88340.72347.64
Year 3 PV (M)326.09336.17346.46
Year 4 PV (M)315.83328.92342.41
Year 5 PV (M)303.75319.57336.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,334.014,559.694,794.68
Equity Value (M)5,951.956,226.936,512.54
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
Fair Value$74.36$77.80$81.37
Upside / Downside-60.40%-58.57%-56.67%

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