Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Malayan Cement Berhad (3794.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.66 - $3.87$3.25
Multi-Stage$4.53 - $4.97$4.75
Blended Fair Value$4.00
Current Price$5.02
Upside-20.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)473.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.4884.0550.43
Cash Retained (M)473.60473.60473.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.48-84.05-50.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.13389.56423.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.66$3.25$3.87
Upside / Downside-47.00%-35.31%-22.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.39665.66659.00652.41645.89639.43658.61
Payout Ratio29.56%41.65%53.74%65.83%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.78277.25354.14429.45503.23575.49609.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)252.81255.39257.97
Year 2 PV (M)294.45300.49306.59
Year 3 PV (M)325.60335.67345.94
Year 4 PV (M)347.90362.32377.18
Year 5 PV (M)362.78381.67401.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,907.167,266.837,641.33
Equity Value (M)8,490.698,902.369,330.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
Fair Value$4.53$4.75$4.97
Upside / Downside-9.84%-5.47%-0.93%

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