Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,231.02 - $15,033.91$13,877.14
Multi-Stage$2,921.72 - $3,203.82$3,060.13
Blended Fair Value$8,468.64
Current Price$1,130.00
Upside649.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%6.05%31.4538.5535.7828.7926.7326.7325.7022.6219.5319.53
YoY Growth---18.42%7.75%24.30%7.69%0.00%4.00%13.64%15.79%0.00%11.76%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.63%1.70%1.79%1.70%2.23%1.72%1.51%1.27%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,493,602.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635,802.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)698,720.57436,700.36262,020.21
Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.361,857,800.361,857,800.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-698,720.57-436,700.36-262,020.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,159,079.781,421,100.001,595,780.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
LTM Dividend per Share35.8835.8835.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.3067.0570.88
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$4,231.02$13,877.14$15,033.91
Upside / Downside274.43%1,128.07%1,230.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,493,602.863,670,055.383,855,420.054,050,146.994,254,709.064,469,603.024,603,691.11
Payout Ratio46.82%55.46%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635,802.502,035,347.972,471,080.472,945,636.183,461,825.274,022,642.724,258,414.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)1,909,819.581,928,174.281,946,528.97
Year 2 PV (M)2,175,676.062,217,696.552,260,118.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,433,549.162,504,389.952,576,592.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,683,612.672,788,275.012,895,969.32
Year 5 PV (M)2,926,037.073,069,372.093,218,270.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,077,913.77127,009,043.32133,170,362.72
Equity Value (M)133,206,608.32139,516,951.20146,067,842.32
Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
Fair Value$2,921.72$3,060.13$3,203.82
Upside / Downside158.56%170.81%183.52%

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