Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fesh Fash Snack Food Production Company (9515.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.15 - $9.26$7.62
Multi-Stage$12.05 - $13.26$12.64
Blended Fair Value$10.13
Current Price$10.54
Upside-3.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-16.04%0.00%0.180.150.100.300.380.430.430.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.01%49.99%-66.67%-20.00%-13.08%1.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.86%0.69%0.82%5.79%6.66%6.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.641.020.61
Cash Retained (M)6.166.166.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.64-1.02-0.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.525.145.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.2611.2611.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.15$7.62$9.26
Upside / Downside-41.61%-27.69%-12.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.208.128.047.967.887.808.03
Payout Ratio24.81%37.85%50.89%63.92%76.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.033.074.095.096.067.027.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.832.862.89
Year 2 PV (M)3.483.553.63
Year 3 PV (M)4.004.124.25
Year 4 PV (M)4.394.584.76
Year 5 PV (M)4.694.945.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)116.27122.32128.63
Equity Value (M)135.67142.38149.35
Shares Outstanding (M)11.2611.2611.26
Fair Value$12.05$12.64$13.26
Upside / Downside14.30%19.95%25.82%

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