Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (603916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.44 - $3.75$3.05
Multi-Stage$6.01 - $6.61$6.31
Blended Fair Value$4.68
Current Price$10.42
Upside-55.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.40%-2.70%0.270.390.480.410.310.280.220.110.250.22
YoY Growth---30.63%-17.75%16.13%32.32%11.82%25.84%102.90%-57.24%15.89%-38.71%
Dividend Yield--3.58%4.54%2.92%1.92%1.36%1.68%1.79%0.84%2.34%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2813.928.35
Cash Retained (M)41.8241.8241.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.28-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5427.9033.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Fair Value$2.44$3.05$3.75
Upside / Downside-76.54%-70.69%-64.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.39109.84108.31106.79105.30103.83106.95
Payout Ratio62.46%67.96%73.47%78.98%84.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5774.6579.5884.3588.9793.4598.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)69.5470.2670.97
Year 2 PV (M)69.0670.4871.92
Year 3 PV (M)68.1970.3172.47
Year 4 PV (M)67.0169.8072.68
Year 5 PV (M)65.5769.0072.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,132.752,244.262,360.40
Equity Value (M)2,472.132,594.112,721.00
Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
Fair Value$6.01$6.31$6.61
Upside / Downside-42.33%-39.49%-36.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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