Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Zhenyuan Share Co., Ltd. (000705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.39 - $4.75$3.31
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.45$2.35
Blended Fair Value$2.83
Current Price$9.92
Upside-71.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.97%24.93%0.070.060.060.070.060.030.000.020.030.00
YoY Growth--19.24%-2.23%-13.42%11.24%103.51%584.71%-81.78%-26.22%4,281.72%-89.95%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.75%0.76%0.77%0.88%0.44%0.06%0.31%0.28%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.445.903.54
Cash Retained (M)22.2722.2722.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.44-5.90-3.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8216.3718.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$2.39$3.31$4.75
Upside / Downside-75.95%-66.64%-52.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.2249.6052.1054.7257.4860.3862.19
Payout Ratio52.84%60.27%67.71%75.14%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9529.9035.2741.1247.4654.3457.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1827.4427.70
Year 2 PV (M)29.1629.7230.29
Year 3 PV (M)30.9031.8032.72
Year 4 PV (M)32.4333.6934.99
Year 5 PV (M)33.7535.4137.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)601.08630.53661.12
Equity Value (M)754.50788.59823.94
Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
Fair Value$2.25$2.35$2.45
Upside / Downside-77.35%-76.32%-75.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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