Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $657.18 - $1,150.91 | $1,078.57 |
| Multi-Stage | $183.03 - $200.41 | $191.56 |
| Blended Fair Value | $635.07 | |
| Current Price | $56.58 | |
| Upside | 1,022.42% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.94% | 9.94% | 1.68 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.76 | 1.77 | 1.60 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -12.06% | 4.83% | 3.07% | 0.77% | -0.38% | 10.17% | 82.95% | 19.44% | 0.00% | 12.35% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.38% | 4.46% | 6.10% | 2.70% | 3.20% | 6.60% | 3.43% | 1.66% | 1.75% | 3.03% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 852.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 273.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 579.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 170.40 | 106.50 | 63.90 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 579.00 | 579.00 | 579.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -170.40 | -106.50 | -63.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 408.60 | 472.50 | 515.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 147.22 | 147.22 | 147.22 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.78 | 3.21 | 3.50 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.78 | 3.21 | 3.50 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.63 | 5.06 | 5.35 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.24% | 6.24% | 6.24% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $657.18 | $1,078.57 | $1,150.91 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,061.51% | 1,806.28% | 1,934.13% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 852.00 | 907.38 | 966.36 | 1,029.17 | 1,096.07 | 1,167.31 | 1,202.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 32.04% | 43.63% | 55.23% | 66.82% | 78.41% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 273.00 | 395.92 | 533.68 | 687.66 | 859.41 | 1,050.58 | 1,112.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.24% | 6.24% | 6.24% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 369.16 | 372.66 | 376.16 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 463.96 | 472.80 | 481.72 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 557.42 | 573.42 | 589.72 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 649.54 | 674.52 | 700.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 740.35 | 776.11 | 813.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 24,165.62 | 25,332.83 | 26,544.71 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,946.05 | 28,202.34 | 29,505.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 147.22 | 147.22 | 147.22 |
| Fair Value | $183.03 | $191.56 | $200.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 223.49% | 238.57% | 254.21% |
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