Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.05 - $46.79$31.31
Multi-Stage$16.79 - $18.31$17.54
Blended Fair Value$24.42
Current Price$30.45
Upside-19.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.02%22.50%0.570.470.340.080.080.070.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--20.01%38.94%352.14%0.11%0.68%-0.11%0.23%0.11%-0.23%0.11%
Dividend Yield--1.81%0.67%0.65%0.20%0.26%0.72%0.44%0.36%0.40%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.721.03
Cash Retained (M)6.876.876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.125.155.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.05$31.31$46.79
Upside / Downside-27.59%2.82%53.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7914.6915.6416.6617.7418.8919.46
Payout Ratio50.16%58.12%66.09%74.06%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.928.5410.3412.3414.5517.0018.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.697.767.83
Year 2 PV (M)8.388.548.70
Year 3 PV (M)9.019.279.53
Year 4 PV (M)9.579.9410.32
Year 5 PV (M)10.0710.5611.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)152.41159.77167.41
Equity Value (M)197.13205.84214.87
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
Fair Value$16.79$17.54$18.31
Upside / Downside-44.85%-42.41%-39.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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