Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $98.09 - $217.42 | $141.44 |
| Multi-Stage | $101.24 - $110.76 | $105.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $123.67 | |
| Current Price | $152.00 | |
| Upside | -18.64% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.03% | 1.18% | 2.66 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.09 | 2.00 | 1.81 | 1.63 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 2.58 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.91% | 4.47% | 9.63% | 4.59% | 10.76% | 10.61% | 11.06% | -44.09% | 1.92% | 9.12% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.69% | 1.71% | 1.74% | 1.77% | 1.85% | 2.64% | 1.62% | 1.73% | 4.12% | 4.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,432.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 779.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 653.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 286.40 | 179.00 | 107.40 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 653.00 | 653.00 | 653.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -286.40 | -179.00 | -107.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 366.60 | 474.00 | 545.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 282.75 | 282.75 | 282.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.30 | 1.68 | 1.93 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.76 | 2.76 | 2.76 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.30 | 1.68 | 1.93 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.05 | 4.43 | 4.68 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.67% | 7.67% | 7.67% |
| Growth Rate | 3.40% | 4.40% | 5.40% |
| Fair Value | $98.09 | $141.44 | $217.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.47% | -6.95% | 43.04% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,432.00 | 1,495.03 | 1,560.83 | 1,629.53 | 1,701.25 | 1,776.13 | 1,829.41 |
| Payout Ratio | 54.40% | 61.52% | 68.64% | 75.76% | 82.88% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 779.00 | 919.73 | 1,071.35 | 1,234.53 | 1,409.99 | 1,598.51 | 1,692.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.67% | 7.67% | 7.67% |
| Growth Rate | 3.40% | 4.40% | 5.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 846.01 | 854.20 | 862.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 906.49 | 924.10 | 941.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 960.83 | 988.98 | 1,017.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,009.44 | 1,049.05 | 1,089.83 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,052.67 | 1,104.57 | 1,158.49 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 23,849.67 | 25,025.45 | 26,247.15 |
| Equity Value (M) | 28,625.11 | 29,946.35 | 31,317.41 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 282.75 | 282.75 | 282.75 |
| Fair Value | $101.24 | $105.91 | $110.76 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.40% | -30.32% | -27.13% |
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