Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $246.90 - $585.98 | $364.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $174.13 - $190.23 | $182.04 |
| Blended Fair Value | $273.19 | |
| Current Price | $132.44 | |
| Upside | 106.28% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 17.09% | 19.11% | 2.12 | 1.86 | 1.60 | 1.46 | 1.27 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.99% | 16.15% | 9.71% | 14.83% | 31.92% | 27.70% | 25.76% | 5.12% | 29.04% | 19.87% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.88% | 1.80% | 2.19% | 1.57% | 1.67% | 2.93% | 1.07% | 0.70% | 0.82% | 1.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 786.18 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 164.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 621.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 157.24 | 98.27 | 58.96 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 621.70 | 621.70 | 621.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -157.24 | -98.27 | -58.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 464.46 | 523.43 | 562.73 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.67 | 67.67 | 67.67 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.86 | 7.74 | 8.32 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.43 | 2.43 | 2.43 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.86 | 7.74 | 8.32 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.29 | 10.17 | 10.75 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.47% | 9.47% | 9.47% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $246.90 | $364.35 | $585.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 86.43% | 175.10% | 342.45% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 786.18 | 837.28 | 891.71 | 949.67 | 1,011.40 | 1,077.14 | 1,109.45 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.92% | 34.74% | 48.55% | 62.37% | 76.18% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 164.48 | 290.85 | 432.95 | 592.30 | 770.53 | 969.42 | 1,026.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.47% | 9.47% | 9.47% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 263.19 | 265.69 | 268.18 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 354.52 | 361.27 | 368.09 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 438.88 | 451.48 | 464.31 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 516.65 | 536.52 | 556.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 588.20 | 616.61 | 646.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 9,621.67 | 10,086.40 | 10,568.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,783.10 | 12,317.96 | 12,872.55 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.67 | 67.67 | 67.67 |
| Fair Value | $174.13 | $182.04 | $190.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 31.48% | 37.45% | 43.64% |
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