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Definitive Analysis

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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.18 - $318.51$219.48
Multi-Stage$118.34 - $129.13$123.64
Blended Fair Value$171.56
Current Price$192.62
Upside-10.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.20%8.34%2.251.871.751.511.271.211.131.091.081.03
YoY Growth--20.47%6.96%15.89%18.96%4.65%7.35%3.94%1.10%4.62%1.49%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.31%2.95%2.19%1.45%3.87%4.03%4.55%4.11%3.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)797.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.06138.1682.90
Cash Retained (M)797.48797.48797.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.06-138.16-82.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)576.42659.32714.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.22124.22124.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.645.315.75
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.645.315.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.127.798.23
WACC / Discount Rate10.28%10.28%10.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.18$219.48$318.51
Upside / Downside-18.40%13.94%65.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.301,177.151,253.661,335.151,421.941,514.361,559.79
Payout Ratio27.85%40.28%52.71%65.14%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307.83474.15660.81869.721,103.001,362.931,442.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.28%10.28%10.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)425.93429.96434.00
Year 2 PV (M)533.21543.37553.62
Year 3 PV (M)630.41648.50666.94
Year 4 PV (M)718.18745.80774.20
Year 5 PV (M)797.16835.66875.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,595.0712,155.1212,736.60
Equity Value (M)14,699.9515,358.4116,041.00
Shares Outstanding (M)124.22124.22124.22
Fair Value$118.34$123.64$129.13
Upside / Downside-38.56%-35.81%-32.96%

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