Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $246.76 - $566.85 | $360.21 |
| Multi-Stage | $326.84 - $358.85 | $342.54 |
| Blended Fair Value | $351.38 | |
| Current Price | $84.89 | |
| Upside | 313.92% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.58% | 4.10% | 3.07 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.63 | 2.52 | 2.45 | 1.85 | 1.76 | 1.70 | 1.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.72% | 3.81% | 7.31% | 4.27% | 2.82% | 32.37% | 5.24% | 3.62% | 36.42% | -39.33% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.75% | 4.80% | 4.72% | 5.12% | 6.79% | 7.31% | 5.77% | 5.12% | 4.39% | 3.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,613.50 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 442.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,171.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 322.70 | 201.69 | 121.01 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,171.50 | 1,171.50 | 1,171.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -322.70 | -201.69 | -121.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 848.80 | 969.81 | 1,050.49 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.15 | 130.15 | 130.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.52 | 7.45 | 8.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.52 | 7.45 | 8.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.92 | 10.85 | 11.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 2.22% | 3.22% | 4.22% |
| Fair Value | $246.76 | $360.21 | $566.85 |
| Upside / Downside | 190.68% | 324.33% | 567.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,613.50 | 1,665.43 | 1,719.03 | 1,774.35 | 1,831.46 | 1,890.40 | 1,947.11 |
| Payout Ratio | 27.39% | 39.92% | 52.44% | 64.96% | 77.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 442.00 | 664.76 | 901.40 | 1,152.58 | 1,418.99 | 1,701.36 | 1,801.08 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 2.22% | 3.22% | 4.22% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 619.15 | 625.20 | 631.26 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 781.94 | 797.32 | 812.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 931.23 | 958.83 | 986.97 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,067.82 | 1,110.22 | 1,153.88 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,192.46 | 1,251.94 | 1,313.77 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 37,945.65 | 39,838.43 | 41,806.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 42,538.25 | 44,581.95 | 46,704.72 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.15 | 130.15 | 130.15 |
| Fair Value | $326.84 | $342.54 | $358.85 |
| Upside / Downside | 285.02% | 303.51% | 322.73% |
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