Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.09 - $18.78 | $15.87 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.31 - $25.49 | $24.38 |
| Blended Fair Value | $20.13 | |
| Current Price | $38.24 | |
| Upside | -47.37% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.15% | 1.06% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.12% | -0.43% | 0.12% | 0.35% | 0.37% | 1.20% | 3.01% | 2.79% | 2.36% | 2.04% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.56% | 2.95% | 4.22% | 2.74% | 2.42% | 4.21% | 3.02% | 2.17% | 2.49% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 101.73 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 94.50 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 7.23 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 20.35 | 12.72 | 7.63 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 7.23 | 7.23 | 7.23 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -20.35 | -12.72 | -7.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -13.12 | -5.49 | -0.40 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.12 | 54.12 | 54.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.50 | 1.64 | 1.74 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.15% | -1.15% | -0.15% |
| Fair Value | $13.09 | $15.87 | $18.78 |
| Upside / Downside | -65.78% | -58.49% | -50.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 101.73 | 100.56 | 99.41 | 98.27 | 97.15 | 96.03 | 98.92 |
| Payout Ratio | 92.90% | 92.32% | 91.74% | 91.16% | 90.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 94.50 | 92.84 | 91.20 | 89.58 | 88.00 | 86.43 | 91.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.15% | -1.15% | -0.15% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 84.24 | 85.10 | 85.96 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 75.08 | 76.62 | 78.18 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 66.92 | 68.99 | 71.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 59.64 | 62.11 | 64.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 53.15 | 55.92 | 58.81 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 922.69 | 970.81 | 1,020.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,261.71 | 1,319.55 | 1,379.63 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.12 | 54.12 | 54.12 |
| Fair Value | $23.31 | $24.38 | $25.49 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.04% | -36.24% | -33.34% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
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