Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$404.05 - $1,058.30$615.43
Multi-Stage$301.92 - $330.52$315.96
Blended Fair Value$465.69
Current Price$137.09
Upside239.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.530.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.5315.339.20
Cash Retained (M)113.34113.34113.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.53-15.33-9.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.8198.01104.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.0115.3316.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$404.05$615.43$1,058.30
Upside / Downside194.73%348.92%671.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.63129.78137.34145.34153.81162.77167.65
Payout Ratio7.58%24.06%40.55%57.03%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.2931.2355.6982.89113.07146.49155.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5228.7929.06
Year 2 PV (M)46.4447.3448.23
Year 3 PV (M)63.1464.9666.82
Year 4 PV (M)78.6681.7084.84
Year 5 PV (M)93.0797.59102.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,803.921,891.621,982.70
Equity Value (M)2,113.752,212.012,313.95
Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
Fair Value$301.92$315.96$330.52
Upside / Downside120.24%130.47%141.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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