Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.20 - $219.66$162.20
Multi-Stage$94.38 - $102.97$98.60
Blended Fair Value$130.40
Current Price$86.72
Upside50.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.08%0.00%1.611.561.521.160.920.470.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.09%3.19%30.25%25.96%97.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.50%4.27%1.41%0.98%1.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)899.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)719.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.96112.4867.49
Cash Retained (M)719.40719.40719.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.96-112.48-67.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)539.44606.93651.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.63109.63109.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.925.545.95
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.925.545.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.577.187.59
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.20$162.20$219.66
Upside / Downside39.76%87.04%153.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)899.80958.291,020.581,086.911,157.561,232.801,269.79
Payout Ratio20.05%34.04%48.03%62.02%76.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.40326.19490.18674.10879.861,109.521,174.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)290.54293.30296.05
Year 2 PV (M)388.89396.30403.77
Year 3 PV (M)476.36490.03503.97
Year 4 PV (M)553.81575.11597.02
Year 5 PV (M)622.05652.09683.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,015.298,402.438,804.39
Equity Value (M)10,346.9410,809.2611,288.48
Shares Outstanding (M)109.63109.63109.63
Fair Value$94.38$98.60$102.97
Upside / Downside8.84%13.70%18.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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