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Verallia S.A. (VRLA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.01 - $57.49$46.48
Multi-Stage$89.50 - $98.33$93.83
Blended Fair Value$70.16
Current Price$28.20
Upside148.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.141.391.040.970.110.000.000.000.740.00
YoY Growth--53.79%33.50%7.44%771.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.81%3.99%3.29%3.13%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.62%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)452.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5057.8134.69
Cash Retained (M)10.2010.2010.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.50-57.81-34.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-82.30-47.61-24.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
LTM Dividend per Share3.843.843.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.40-0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.443.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$37.01$46.48$57.49
Upside / Downside31.25%64.83%103.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.50457.88453.30448.76444.28439.83453.03
Payout Ratio97.79%96.24%94.68%93.12%91.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)452.30440.64429.17417.88406.77395.85419.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)410.27414.46418.65
Year 2 PV (M)372.05379.68387.39
Year 3 PV (M)337.30347.73358.38
Year 4 PV (M)305.71318.38331.44
Year 5 PV (M)277.00291.42306.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,840.849,301.209,780.55
Equity Value (M)10,543.1711,052.8811,582.84
Shares Outstanding (M)117.80117.80117.80
Fair Value$89.50$93.83$98.33
Upside / Downside217.38%232.73%248.68%

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