Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $285.31 - $655.31 | $416.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $311.34 - $340.75 | $325.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $371.11 | |
| Current Price | $91.96 | |
| Upside | 303.56% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.79% | 11.41% | 11.53 | 23.40 | 8.70 | 5.97 | 5.89 | 5.78 | 4.74 | 2.66 | 0.73 | 5.02 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -50.74% | 168.96% | 45.69% | 1.42% | 1.83% | 22.06% | 78.30% | 265.93% | -85.53% | 28.24% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 12.32% | 19.07% | 6.93% | 3.80% | 2.47% | 5.41% | 3.28% | 1.65% | 0.53% | 4.49% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,121.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,412.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,709.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,424.20 | 890.13 | 534.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,709.00 | 2,709.00 | 2,709.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,424.20 | -890.13 | -534.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,284.80 | 1,818.88 | 2,174.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 501.30 | 501.30 | 501.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.56 | 3.63 | 4.34 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.80 | 8.80 | 8.80 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.56 | 3.63 | 4.34 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 11.36 | 12.43 | 13.14 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | 3.14% | 4.14% | 5.14% |
| Fair Value | $285.31 | $416.46 | $655.31 |
| Upside / Downside | 210.26% | 352.87% | 612.60% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,121.00 | 7,416.14 | 7,723.51 | 8,043.62 | 8,376.99 | 8,724.19 | 8,985.91 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.96% | 67.57% | 73.17% | 78.78% | 84.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,412.00 | 5,010.79 | 5,651.64 | 6,337.01 | 7,069.47 | 7,851.77 | 8,311.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | 3.14% | 4.14% | 5.14% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,627.08 | 4,671.94 | 4,716.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,819.21 | 4,913.11 | 5,007.91 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,989.83 | 5,136.38 | 5,285.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,140.31 | 5,342.57 | 5,550.75 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,271.94 | 5,532.51 | 5,803.27 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 131,226.29 | 137,712.11 | 144,451.89 |
| Equity Value (M) | 156,074.67 | 163,308.62 | 170,816.39 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 501.30 | 501.30 | 501.30 |
| Fair Value | $311.34 | $325.77 | $340.75 |
| Upside / Downside | 238.56% | 254.26% | 270.54% |
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