Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.67 - $16.33$14.62
Multi-Stage$23.83 - $26.46$25.12
Blended Fair Value$19.87
Current Price$40.53
Upside-50.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.47%-12.68%0.710.652.052.054.172.542.692.502.402.39
YoY Growth--9.33%-68.25%0.11%-50.91%64.22%-5.74%7.65%4.31%0.25%-13.34%
Dividend Yield--1.92%2.32%13.33%4.51%9.18%7.01%3.98%3.72%2.96%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)905.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)141.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)764.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)181.11113.1967.92
Cash Retained (M)764.45764.45764.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-181.11-113.19-67.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)583.34651.26696.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.48198.48198.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.943.283.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.943.283.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.653.994.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-14.68%-13.68%-12.68%
Fair Value$12.67$14.62$16.33
Upside / Downside-68.73%-63.93%-59.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)905.56781.63674.67582.34502.64433.86446.87
Payout Ratio15.58%30.47%45.35%60.23%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)141.10238.13305.96350.76377.57390.47413.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-14.68%-13.68%-12.68%
Year 1 PV (M)214.20216.71219.22
Year 2 PV (M)247.55253.39259.29
Year 3 PV (M)255.28264.36273.66
Year 4 PV (M)247.18258.97271.18
Year 5 PV (M)229.94243.73258.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,535.763,747.893,970.08
Equity Value (M)4,729.904,985.055,251.62
Shares Outstanding (M)198.48198.48198.48
Fair Value$23.83$25.12$26.46
Upside / Downside-41.20%-38.03%-34.72%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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