Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $50.89 - $81.55 | $64.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $77.34 - $84.52 | $80.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $72.81 | |
| Current Price | $170.26 | |
| Upside | -57.23% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.49% | 9.59% | 4.43 | 4.64 | 4.99 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 4.77 | 4.38 | 3.97 | 3.55 | 2.71 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -4.68% | -7.04% | -2.50% | 0.13% | 7.24% | 8.98% | 10.23% | 11.79% | 31.01% | 53.07% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.35% | 2.69% | 3.58% | 5.04% | 7.15% | 10.52% | 5.06% | 4.28% | 5.36% | 4.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,495.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,400.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 95.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 299.00 | 186.88 | 112.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 95.00 | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -299.00 | -186.88 | -112.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -204.00 | -91.88 | -17.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 312.75 | 312.75 | 312.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.65 | -0.29 | -0.05 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.48 | 4.48 | 4.48 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.65 | -0.29 | -0.05 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.82 | 4.18 | 4.42 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.32% | 8.32% | 8.32% |
| Growth Rate | 0.75% | 1.75% | 2.75% |
| Fair Value | $50.89 | $64.77 | $81.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -70.11% | -61.96% | -52.10% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,495.00 | 1,521.09 | 1,547.63 | 1,574.64 | 1,602.12 | 1,630.08 | 1,678.98 |
| Payout Ratio | 93.65% | 92.92% | 92.19% | 91.46% | 90.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,400.00 | 1,413.34 | 1,426.72 | 1,440.14 | 1,453.59 | 1,467.07 | 1,553.06 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.32% | 8.32% | 8.32% |
| Growth Rate | 0.75% | 1.75% | 2.75% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,292.01 | 1,304.83 | 1,317.66 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,192.27 | 1,216.06 | 1,240.08 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,100.17 | 1,133.25 | 1,167.00 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,015.11 | 1,056.02 | 1,098.15 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 936.57 | 983.99 | 1,033.30 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,650.90 | 19,595.11 | 20,577.18 |
| Equity Value (M) | 24,187.03 | 25,289.26 | 26,433.37 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 312.75 | 312.75 | 312.75 |
| Fair Value | $77.34 | $80.86 | $84.52 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.58% | -52.51% | -50.36% |
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