Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.00 - $8.20 | $7.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.81 - $20.79 | $19.78 |
| Blended Fair Value | $13.45 | |
| Current Price | $10.07 | |
| Upside | 33.55% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.31% | -6.44% | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.80% | -16.34% | -19.57% | 3.45% | 4.54% | -8.00% | -12.68% | -7.47% | -4.85% | 0.63% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.14% | 4.40% | 5.30% | 5.28% | 4.64% | 4.58% | 5.27% | 6.08% | 6.15% | 6.27% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 67.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 46.29 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 13.40 | 8.38 | 5.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20.73 | 20.73 | 20.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -13.40 | -8.38 | -5.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7.33 | 12.36 | 15.71 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 55.35 | 55.35 | 55.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -8.31% | -7.31% | -6.31% |
| Fair Value | $6.00 | $7.12 | $8.20 |
| Upside / Downside | -40.41% | -29.34% | -18.59% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 67.02 | 62.12 | 57.58 | 53.37 | 49.47 | 45.86 | 47.23 |
| Payout Ratio | 69.07% | 73.25% | 77.44% | 81.63% | 85.81% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 46.29 | 45.51 | 44.59 | 43.57 | 42.45 | 41.27 | 43.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -8.31% | -7.31% | -6.31% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 42.27 | 42.73 | 43.19 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 38.48 | 39.32 | 40.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 34.92 | 36.07 | 37.25 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 31.61 | 33.01 | 34.46 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 28.54 | 30.13 | 31.79 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 865.31 | 913.53 | 963.89 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,041.13 | 1,094.81 | 1,150.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 55.35 | 55.35 | 55.35 |
| Fair Value | $18.81 | $19.78 | $20.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 86.80% | 96.43% | 106.47% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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