Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.07 - $7.46 | $6.22 |
| Multi-Stage | $7.74 - $8.48 | $8.11 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.16 | |
| Current Price | $15.78 | |
| Upside | -54.60% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -19.61% | -13.16% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 1.11% | 0.00% | -33.82% | -49.82% | 0.00% | -0.37% | 0.37% | 0.00% | -27.35% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.96% | 1.92% | 1.81% | 1.08% | 2.33% | 7.69% | 3.30% | 1.31% | 2.42% | 6.72% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 18.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 9.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.68 | 2.30 | 1.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.30 | 9.30 | 9.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.68 | -2.30 | -1.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5.62 | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 28.50 | 28.50 | 28.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.33% | 9.33% | 9.33% |
| Growth Rate | -0.77% | 0.23% | 1.23% |
| Fair Value | $5.07 | $6.22 | $7.46 |
| Upside / Downside | -67.84% | -60.57% | -52.70% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 18.40 | 18.44 | 18.48 | 18.53 | 18.57 | 18.61 | 19.17 |
| Payout Ratio | 49.46% | 57.57% | 65.67% | 73.78% | 81.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 9.10 | 10.62 | 12.14 | 13.67 | 15.21 | 16.75 | 17.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.33% | 9.33% | 9.33% |
| Growth Rate | -0.77% | 0.23% | 1.23% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 9.61 | 9.71 | 9.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 9.95 | 10.16 | 10.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10.15 | 10.46 | 10.78 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10.23 | 10.64 | 11.07 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10.20 | 10.72 | 11.27 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 170.58 | 179.35 | 188.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 220.72 | 231.04 | 241.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 28.50 | 28.50 | 28.50 |
| Fair Value | $7.74 | $8.11 | $8.48 |
| Upside / Downside | -50.92% | -48.63% | -46.24% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
| TQ5.SI | Frasers Property Limited | 3.98% | $0.05 | 60.69% |
| 007860.KS | Seoyon Co., Ltd. | 3.97% | $381.92 | 8.19% |
| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
| 82800.HK | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 3.92% | $0.93 | 12.85% |
| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
| 1437.TW | GTM Holdings Corporation | 3.91% | $1.35 | 64.33% |
| 234080.KS | JW Lifescience Corporation | 3.91% | $501.22 | 16.27% |
| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
| SUZB3.SA | Suzano S.A. | 3.91% | $2.03 | 38.32% |
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| EUX.F | Euwax AG | 3.90% | $1.85 | 82.61% |
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| 0R9H.L | Banca Sistema S.p.A. | 3.89% | $0.07 | 15.44% |