Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. (VBFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.62 - $71.58$57.54
Multi-Stage$109.07 - $120.27$114.56
Blended Fair Value$86.05
Current Price$77.85
Upside10.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.720.660.570.140.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.79%14.47%316.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.60%1.04%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.400.880.53
Cash Retained (M)5.945.945.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.40-0.88-0.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.545.065.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.501.501.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.033.383.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.033.383.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.754.104.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.62$57.54$71.58
Upside / Downside-41.41%-26.09%-8.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.026.956.886.816.746.676.87
Payout Ratio15.35%30.28%45.21%60.14%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.082.103.114.095.066.016.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.961.982.00
Year 2 PV (M)2.712.762.82
Year 3 PV (M)3.333.433.54
Year 4 PV (M)3.844.004.16
Year 5 PV (M)4.254.474.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)147.07154.73162.70
Equity Value (M)163.16171.38179.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1.501.501.50
Fair Value$109.07$114.56$120.27
Upside / Downside40.10%47.15%54.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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