Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $67.38 - $172.16 | $101.84 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.94 - $57.89 | $55.37 |
| Blended Fair Value | $78.60 | |
| Current Price | $30.02 | |
| Upside | 161.83% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.17% | 6.69% | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.83% | 1.80% | 4.38% | 34.44% | -25.17% | -0.26% | 10.31% | 25.11% | 13.41% | 15.50% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.01% | 4.23% | 3.56% | 3.03% | 2.11% | 4.93% | 3.23% | 2.64% | 2.26% | 2.64% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 86.95 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 25.18 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 61.78 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17.39 | 10.87 | 6.52 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 61.78 | 61.78 | 61.78 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17.39 | -10.87 | -6.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 44.39 | 50.91 | 55.26 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 29.12 | 29.12 | 29.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1.90 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1.90 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.61 | 2.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.41% | 8.41% | 8.41% |
| Growth Rate | 4.69% | 5.69% | 6.69% |
| Fair Value | $67.38 | $101.84 | $172.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 124.45% | 239.23% | 473.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 86.95 | 91.90 | 97.14 | 102.67 | 108.51 | 114.69 | 118.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.95% | 41.16% | 53.37% | 65.58% | 77.79% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 25.18 | 37.83 | 51.84 | 67.33 | 84.41 | 103.22 | 109.27 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.41% | 8.41% | 8.41% |
| Growth Rate | 4.69% | 5.69% | 6.69% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 34.57 | 34.90 | 35.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 43.28 | 44.12 | 44.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 51.37 | 52.85 | 54.37 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 58.84 | 61.12 | 63.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 65.75 | 68.95 | 72.27 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,287.66 | 1,350.34 | 1,415.44 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,541.46 | 1,612.27 | 1,685.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 29.12 | 29.12 | 29.12 |
| Fair Value | $52.94 | $55.37 | $57.89 |
| Upside / Downside | 76.33% | 84.44% | 92.84% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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