Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.37 - $161.37$122.74
Multi-Stage$24.96 - $27.31$26.11
Blended Fair Value$74.43
Current Price$7.65
Upside872.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.71%14.20%0.830.600.740.791.080.600.250.150.150.10
YoY Growth--38.33%-18.90%-6.34%-26.82%79.93%139.98%66.67%0.00%50.00%-54.55%
Dividend Yield--10.64%5.41%5.52%4.82%5.51%8.69%2.50%1.30%1.94%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)531.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)390.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.2766.4239.85
Cash Retained (M)141.34141.34141.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.27-66.42-39.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.0774.93101.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)650.00650.00650.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Fair Value$42.37$122.74$161.37
Upside / Downside453.89%1,504.50%2,009.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)531.34561.67593.72627.60663.42701.28722.32
Payout Ratio73.40%76.72%80.04%83.36%86.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)390.00430.91475.21523.17575.05631.15668.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Year 1 PV (M)401.45405.28409.11
Year 2 PV (M)412.45420.37428.36
Year 3 PV (M)423.03435.27447.74
Year 4 PV (M)433.20449.99467.26
Year 5 PV (M)442.96464.52486.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,112.2514,799.1415,512.52
Equity Value (M)16,225.3416,974.5617,751.90
Shares Outstanding (M)650.00650.00650.00
Fair Value$24.96$26.11$27.31
Upside / Downside226.30%241.37%257.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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