Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $75.30 - $146.09 | $103.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $70.85 - $77.40 | $74.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $88.76 | |
| Current Price | $48.33 | |
| Upside | 83.65% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.82% | 6.00% | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.11% | 6.99% | 7.64% | 1.06% | 4.46% | 16.78% | 8.51% | 6.52% | 1.86% | 2.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.70% | 4.33% | 4.94% | 3.11% | 2.96% | 4.55% | 2.73% | 2.45% | 2.25% | 2.81% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,188.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,140.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,048.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,437.60 | 898.50 | 539.10 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,048.00 | 4,048.00 | 4,048.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,437.60 | -898.50 | -539.10 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 2,610.40 | 3,149.50 | 3,508.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.67 | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.67 | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.69 | 4.03 | 4.26 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Fair Value | $75.30 | $103.46 | $146.09 |
| Upside / Downside | 55.80% | 114.07% | 202.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,188.00 | 7,547.65 | 7,925.29 | 8,321.82 | 8,738.20 | 9,175.41 | 9,450.67 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.68% | 52.95% | 62.21% | 71.47% | 80.74% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,140.00 | 3,996.26 | 4,930.35 | 5,947.90 | 7,054.94 | 8,257.86 | 8,741.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,628.12 | 3,663.00 | 3,697.89 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,063.80 | 4,142.32 | 4,221.60 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,450.88 | 4,580.51 | 4,712.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,792.95 | 4,979.96 | 5,172.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,093.36 | 5,342.98 | 5,602.30 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 88,420.65 | 92,754.04 | 97,255.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 110,449.77 | 115,462.82 | 120,662.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 | 1,559.00 |
| Fair Value | $70.85 | $74.06 | $77.40 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.59% | 53.24% | 60.14% |
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