Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $85.73 - $168.64 | $118.41 |
| Multi-Stage | $88.82 - $97.22 | $92.94 |
| Blended Fair Value | $105.67 | |
| Current Price | $77.78 | |
| Upside | 35.86% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.28% | 6.40% | 1.68 | 1.57 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.00% | 9.01% | 6.18% | 3.23% | 1.18% | 6.31% | 10.00% | 7.34% | 4.82% | 9.28% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.06% | 2.92% | 3.64% | 4.31% | 4.72% | 8.66% | 3.52% | 2.33% | 2.21% | 3.19% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 913.10 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 306.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 607.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 182.62 | 114.14 | 68.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 607.00 | 607.00 | 607.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -182.62 | -114.14 | -68.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 424.38 | 492.86 | 538.52 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 176.39 | 176.39 | 176.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.41 | 2.79 | 3.05 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.41 | 2.79 | 3.05 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.14 | 4.53 | 4.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.27% | 8.27% | 8.27% |
| Growth Rate | 3.28% | 4.28% | 5.28% |
| Fair Value | $85.73 | $118.41 | $168.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 10.22% | 52.23% | 116.82% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 913.10 | 952.22 | 993.01 | 1,035.55 | 1,079.91 | 1,126.17 | 1,159.96 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.52% | 44.82% | 56.11% | 67.41% | 78.70% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 306.10 | 426.77 | 557.22 | 698.06 | 849.94 | 1,013.56 | 1,072.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.27% | 8.27% | 8.27% |
| Growth Rate | 3.28% | 4.28% | 5.28% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 390.38 | 394.16 | 397.94 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 466.24 | 475.31 | 484.47 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 534.28 | 549.95 | 565.93 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 595.06 | 618.45 | 642.51 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 649.11 | 681.15 | 714.44 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 13,030.69 | 13,673.84 | 14,342.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,665.76 | 16,392.86 | 17,147.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 176.39 | 176.39 | 176.39 |
| Fair Value | $88.82 | $92.94 | $97.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 14.19% | 19.49% | 24.99% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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